Austrailian Open 2013

The Australian Open starts Monday morning in Melbourne with Novak Djokovic as the heavy favorite to win his third straight title, and fourth overall.  Other serious contenders include the usual suspects: four-time champion Roger Federer and Andy Murray.  Djokovic will be using his new HEAD speed Graphene racquet. 

Without Rafael Nadal, who will be absent from the tournament for the first time since 2003, there is more daylight for players like Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Juan Martin del Potro and Tomas Berdych.  Although, Djokovic would still have been the heavy favorite even if Nadal was here. 

The dominant Spaniard is close to a return but a best of five sets hard court major does not present the ideal opportunity to return to ATP competition.  Look for Nadal make his comeback at the beginning of the European clay court season in the lead up to Roland Garros.  Nadal has repeatedly stated that his first priority for every year is to win Roland Garros.  When Nadal missed the 2012 US Open I put the prospects very low that he would play in Australia.  Nadal hates hard court.  Tendonitis only heals with periods of prolonged rest.  So why wouldn't he just skip Australia and come back fully healthy for the clay court season?  Because Nadal is a fierce competitor and would be in Australia if there was any way that he could.

The main concern will be fitness after a 10-month absence from the circuit.  Nadal is hitting and re-habbing and was planning on making a comeback in Doha but pulled out due to an illness.  Without the warm-up tournament competing in Melbourne safely was impossible.